Monday, August 18, 2008

2008 Fantasy Football RBs Rankings.


In standard fantasy football leagues, the position that makes the most impact on a roster is the running back position. There is a trend, started not too long ago, in the NFL for teams to establish a running back by committee.

With improved conditioning and sports medicine, players can play at a higher level longer, and with the influx of young talent, there are many viable running backs for teams to utilize.

This limits their touches through the season and prolongs their careers. There can be gems found in these committees if you know where to look.

With the emergence of the RBBC Running Backs aren't racking up fantasy points as they used to. That's not to say that all teams do that; each team is different, but you have to analyze their situation. With the decline of RB's fantasy points, you have an emergence of WRs.

Wide Receiver stocks have risen because teams that practice RBBC find WRs more active and open in the red zone. As such, Wide Receivers should receive higher picks than their typical 3-4-round-and-later picks they historically receive. You can still draft good running backs past the first round.
When you factor in the wide receiver run in the third round, there will be value at the running back position after round two and into round four.

We ranked the top 44 Running backs. The Entire Maniaxs’ staff compiled their own rankings assigning 44 points to a No. 1 rank down to assigning one point to a No. 44 rank. We averaged the points to determine the final ranks you’ll see below. As always, we Maniaxs take the integrity of this task seriously and no craziness occurred during the ranking process.

NOTE: These rankings are for seasonal/re-draft leagues only! They're not intended for keeper or dynasty leagues.

Updated as of 08/10/2008.

1. LaDainian Tomlinson. This ranking is normally reserved for the No. 1 pick in the draft. You want someone who will put up stud points and not burn you. He comes with consistency and a track record with plenty of multiple touchdown games. The Chargers OL finished tied for second in rushing TDs, and seventh in rushing yards last year. Tomlinson opens the season by facing soft run defenses like Carolina, Denver, Jets, Oakland, and Miami. Tomlinson is nearing 30, but has one more season left in the tank as an elite back. In the seasonal format, L.T. received all but one first place vote and still towers over the other RBs for the upcoming season.

2. Adrian Peterson. “Purple sensation” was the only other player to receive a first place vote. There is little to not like about Adrian Peterson. He is a touchdown machine, and in his first year in the league, has wrestled the bulk of the carries away from Chester Taylor. When on the field you cannot go wrong playing him. Running behind OLs Matt Birk, Bryant McKinnie and Steve Hutchinson will certainly help as the Vikings led the league in rushing yards, yards per carry, and rushing touchdowns in 2007.

In 2008, the Vikings have the sixth best SOS for RBs, a positive sign for Peterson’s owners. Two things keep Peterson from claiming the top spot in our rankings. First is consistency. He has played only one season in the NFL. We do not predict him to drop drastically in production. There is some extra risk taking a player who has had only one good season. The second concern is injuries. For the last three seasons (one NFL, and two college) Mr. Peterson has missed time due to injury. If you take AP, we advise handcuffing Chester Taylor to him for this reason.

3. Brian Westbrook. Westbrook’s age and injury concerns scare people away from him. We are telling you do not be afraid. Westbrook does not reach thirty years of age until the playoffs. Therefore, he will be reliably safe for seasonal formats. Brian also played 15 games each of the last two seasons. The addition of change of pace back Lorenzo Booker indicates Brian should remain healthy this season.

Westbrook is a rushing and receiving threat. He is also the best player on the Eagles. Westbrook should again match 1800+ all-purpose yards and 10+ touchdowns. One concern is their SOS, which is 25th in the league for RBs, but with their good OL that was good for eighth in rushing yards and second in yards per carry at 4.7 last season, Westbrook can once again excel.

4. Steven Jackson. Steven Jackson tied with Joseph Addai in our scoring system. Really, you cannot go wrong with any of our top five. Jackson gets the edge here because he rushed for just over 1,000 yards last year in only 12 games. This includes an injury depleted offensive line that should see the return of Orlando Pace.

We feel the cobbled OL is the reason for his drop in touchdown production from 16 to six. We expect that total to rise significantly in 2008 as the line gets his starters back making Jackson a good fantasy point’s generator again.

5. Joseph Addai. We see Addai’s scoring similar to last year with 1000-1200 rushing yards and 15+ TDs. He plays for one of the best offenses in the league and is a good receiving back as his 41 catches for 364 yards in ’07 will show. Do not worry about the Colts clinching too soon.

With Jacksonville competing for the division title, there will be plenty of reasons to keep him and the other Colts in the lineup. Also, for seasonal owners, tough defenses can sometimes surprise. Addai plays Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Detroit in the fantasy playoff weeks of 13, 14, and 15 respectively.

6. Clinton Portis. Clinton proved he could stay healthy last year by playing in all 16 games. He is currently hurt, but is expected to be ready to go by training camp. Clinton will get a lot of carries this season, so do not be surprised if he does not participate a lot in training camp. This will keep him fresh.

Expect Portis to have a better year than in 2007, as he should be targeted more in the west coast passing game. The Redskins are getting O-linemen Jon Jansen and Randy Thomas back from injures, a good indication that bigger running lanes are on the horizon for Portis.

7. Marion Barber. Barber will be the man in Dallas. He is still capable of a 16 TD season and posting over 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. Let other people have concerns over Felix Jones stealing carries. His large contract insures he will see a lot of work this year. The addition of Jones should help keep Barber from wearing down during the season.

8. Ryan Grant. Some people will shy away from Ryan Grant because of his contract situation, Brandon Jackson doing well in OTAs, and Grant just burst on the scene out of nowhere. For the last 10 games, Grant rushed for 929 yards and scored eight TDs.

Projecting that out for a 16-game season that would be 1486 yards and 12 TDs! He is also still in Green Bay. Even with Rodgers at the helm, Green Bay still should be one of the top offenses in the NFL. We think Grant will offer great productivity at the end of round one.

9. Larry Johnson. Larry is an excellent candidate for comeback player of the year. Kansas City upgraded their offensive line in the off-season by drafting Brandon Albert. He also should see a full training camp and be ready to go at the start of the season. Herm Edwards has already stated that Larry is going to have his workload reduced this season.

Where that is normally a concern, Larry did break an NFL record for carries in a single season in 2006. It looks for Johnson’s attempts to be more in line with other backs in the NFL this season. Factor in that the Chiefs have the second best SOS for RBs in the league this year, and Johnson gets a vote of confidence to be a top-10 back once more.

10. Frank Gore. Frank is another back who had his 2007 season’s performance less than stellar because of injuries. Still, Frank is young enough to bounce back. DeShaun Foster should be a backup back only. Do not worry about a committee that will hinder Gore’s production. Gore’s receiving stats should rise with the addition of Mike Martz as OC. That will offset Martz’s tendency to pass more than he should. We still think Frank will surpass 1,000 rushing yards and 10 total TDs.

11. Brandon Jacobs. Brandon was a 1000-yard rusher despite starting only nine games and playing in 11. He is a big bruising back who, if he can stay moderately healthy, will break 1,000 yards again. After all, he plays on a N.Y. Giants team that finished fourth in rushing last season. With his size, he should get solid goal line touches. In addition, his four rushing TDs last year should be a statistical aeration.
There are a couple concerns with Brandon.

1) He is not fragile, but running people over does tend to cause injuries. For this his value will drop.

2) N.Y. Giants running back coach Jerald Ingram recently stated that the Giants would go with a running back by committe approach to utilize the various talents of their running backs and keep people healthy. That is news fantasy owners hate to hear.

Do not let injuries or splitting time deter you from drafting him. Splitting time may help him play all 16 games. He has done very well splitting time in the past. He is still going to be the Giants number one guy. Plus, he will get the goaline carries. That is essential to him having good fantasy value. That is why people loved having Marion Barber, but not Julius Jones in Dallas the last two years.

Jacobs is in a contract year and will have plenty of motivation to do well. Expect solid numbers when he plays and plan on him missing a few games.

12. Ronnie Brown. Yes, Ron Brown blew out his knee last year. Yes, it takes two years to fully recover from a knee injury. However, Brown reports to be ahead of schedule and Carson Palmer has proved you can come back from a knee injury pretty darn fast. Now Ron will need to do more with his knee and that is why he is ranked this low. Last year under Cam Cameron had Brown stayed healthy he was on pace to 2200 All-purpose yards plus 11 touchdowns. Miami would have won more than one game and Ron would be solidly entrenched as our No. six running back. Yes, Cam is gone. We assure you Bill and Tony have seen last year’s game tape and they will use Ron to all that he is capable of doing. Unless he suffers a setback, the early third round is when owners should draft Brown. If he is there after that, snatch him up and reap the rewards. Enjoy Miami’s SOS seventh rank with Brown leading the way.

13. Maurice Jones-Drew. Maurice is embroiled in a RBBC. That most likely will not change this year or next. Fred Taylor will get significant yards and Maurice will be hard pressed to gain 1,000 yards this season. Two years ago, when he almost put up 1,000 he had an inflated 5.7 yd/carry avg. This stat needs to be put into proper perspective. Since 1947 to present, only eight times has a running back attempted 166 carries or more and averaged 5.7 Yds. or better.

The most recent backs to do it were Jones-Drew in 2006 and Barry Sanders in 1997. Drew does have some increased value in that he can break the big play and should obtain 10 touchdowns. Besides, there is always the chance that Fred Taylor will get injured again. Though you might be tempted, do not make Drew your first running back. If you still are not convinced, Jerious Norwood posted a 5.95 yd/carry in a committee last year. Would you trust him to be your No. 1 running back in a seasonal league? We thought not.

14. Marshawn Lynch. Lynch missed some time (three games) with a high ankle sprain last season. Sprains normally are not recurring so his health should be fine this year. We here at Fantasy Football Maniaxs see no reason why Lynch cannot repeat last year’s numbers of 1115 YDS and seven TDs. Keep in mind though, Lynch only had three 100-yard games last year (though two in December). We believe, Lynch will improve this year (fifth in SOS) but we are not convinced you will gain any extra points from his receiving skills.


15. Willis McGahee. Speaking of Cam Cameron (think L.T. and Ronnie Brown), he is now in Baltimore. He has another fine weapon to coordinate and utilize in McGahee. McGahee comes with some injury concerns and the drafting of Ray Rice (think Michael Turner in SD) that will limit his value a bit.

What this means is McGahee will have competition to push him but he should win the starting job. Early reports also indicate Rice will also be playing the slot this year, which will help free up coverage on McGahee. Rice will also help keep McGahee fresh and that makes McGahee a great value-pick in the second round.

16. Laurence Maroney. Patriots passing games comes down to Earth, and Maroney benefits thanks also to an amicable SOS that ranks eighth this year. Oh by the way, the Patriots' O-Line is ranked No. 1 in the league. If they give their running game some consideration like they did last season in the playoffs, Maroney will be a top-10 back by season's end if new addition Lamont Jordan doen't take many snaps away from him.

17. Jamal Lewis. This aging veteran has one more year in the tank on a high-powered offense. The only concern, besides his age, is a tough 29th ranked SOS.

18. Reggie Bush. He is a multipurpose threat and McAllister is injury prone. The Saints should be going back to their 2006 playbook, and that will help Bush in some regard.

19. Michael Turner. He should be ranked higher, but is unproven as a starter. The chance to prove himself is served on a silver platter as the Falcons’ RB will enjoy a fourth best SOS this upcoming season. If the Falcons' O-Line returns to their 2006 efficiency, Turner will reap some benefits.

20. Earnest Graham. One-year wonder? Probably not. Graham is a good PPR back with a new four-year contract and no threat behind him as Warrick Dunn is 33-years old and Carnell Williams' NFL future is in jeopardy while trying to recovery from injury. Williams will begin the season on the PUP list.

21. Willie Parker. “Fast Willie” is a yardage machine that will not see the end zone often. He is rehabilitating a broken leg. Rookie Rashard Mendenhall will steal some caries and TDs from him.

22. Thomas Jones. Thirty-years old with Leon Washington breathing down his neck. Awesome OL in New York. Jones makes for a safe RB2. The acquisition of Brett Favre will make him more dangerous in the redzone, now that defenses will have to respect Favre's talent. His TDs totals should go up from last year.

23. Darren McFadden. This year’s Adrian Peterson by many. Because of Peterson's 2007 success, he will be reached for. Think early third round value. HE HAS SIGNED A CONTRACT!

His value is a double-edged sword: the Raiders ranked sixth in rushing last year, but are still a team on rebuilding mode with unproven JaMarcus Russell at the helm.

24. Selvin Young. He looks like the starter for now. Shanahanagans and Ryan Torain have to be a concern.

25. Edgerrin James. Edge has not aged well. There are still gaps in the Cards OL, but we'll take a last 1,000-yard season from him. His value rises a little in PPR leagues.

26. Len Dale White. He will get the goal line touches. He will get the yards. He will not get the receptions.

27. Julius Jones. Possible committee in Seattle, but we think it is smoke to motivate as Maurice Morris is not a fantasy household name. Jones could be the steal of the draft if he can just get mentally in shape. In his past few seasons in Dallas, he was just going thru the motions and appeared often demotivated.

28. Matt Forte. His stock rose significantly when the team released Cedric Benson. With the recent acquisition of Kevin Jones, his stock status goes back to RBBC. He will probably start, but the Ex-Lion will pilfer some of his carries if he doesn't start the season on the PUP as customary.

29. Rudi Johnson. This year, the Bengals have hinted on using a RBBC that will see Rudi, Kenny Watson (their best RB last year), Chris Perry and De De Dorsey among others. Need we say more? At best, Rudi is consistent if he gets most of the load. Draft with caution.

30. Fred Taylor. Fred will get yards. Can he stay healthy? Jones-Drew is ready to take over in Jacksonville.

31. Jonathan Stewart. Stewart is a human bowling ball. Stewart defines high risk-high reward. Again, Carolina has the No. 1 SOS for RBs in 2008.

32. DeAngelo Williams. John Fox normally does not play rookies. However, Jonathan Stewart may change his rules. Carolina's SOS is ranked first for 2008. This could be Williams' best year ever.

33. Rashard Mendenhall. He should get the TD carries in Pittsburgh's RBBC.

34. Chester Taylor. Peterson’s track record says he should get hurt. But for how long? Handcuffing is a must here.

35. Kevin Smith. Should be the opening day starter for the Detroit Lions. His 400+ carries as a senior could be a bad sign.

36. Justin Fargas. He will open the season as the Raiders starter. It will not end that way.

37. Ahman Green /Chris Brown. One should start, and starting has some value. We do not see either finishing the season as the starter for the Texans..

38. Ahmad Bradshaw. Jacobs equals injuries. Bradshaw could replace.

38 B. LaMont Jordan. Randy Moss proved last year that the Patriots can turn ex-Raiders to productive fantasy options. He will get you respectabe numbers if Maroney goes down.

39. Leon Washington. One injury away to Thomas Jones from starting for the Jets.

40. Ladell Betts. Good pass-catcher back that could see time in west coast offense. If you have the roster space, handcuff to Portis.

41. Deuce McAllister. Should start and run between the tackles. McAllister has played all 16 games only twice in seven years.

42. Felix Jones. Should play some slot and is a bye week replacement if you are desperate.

43. Ricky Williams. Puff! Puff! He is only of value if Brown starts the season on the PUP list. If not, his relief carries during games won't hold much fantasy value.

44. Jerious Norwood. Backup to Turner who could see 10-15 touches a game. One of these years, hopefully before he retires, he will be the starting back for the Falcons.

Rank/Notes Player/Team
1
LaDainian Tomlinson SD
2 Adrian Peterson MIN
3 Brian Westbrook PHI
4 Steven Jackson STL
5 Joseph Addai IND
6 Clinton Portis WAS
7 Marion Barber DAL
8 Ryan Grant GB
9 Larry Johnson KC
10 Frank Gore SF
11 Brandon Jacobs NYG
12 Ronnie Brown↑
13 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX
14 Marshawn Lynch BUF
15 Willis McGahee BAL
16 Laurence Maroney NE
17 Jamal Lewis CLE
18 Reggie Bush NO
19 Michael Turner ATL
20 Earnest Graham TB
21 Willie Parker PIT
22 Thomas Jones JETS↑
23 Darren McFadden OAK
24 Selvin young DEN
25 Edgerrin James AZ
26 Lendale White TEN
27 Julius Jones SEA↓
28 Matt Forte CHI ↑
29 Rudi Johnson CIN
30 Fred Taylor JAX
31 Jonathan Stewart CAR
32 DeAngelo Williams CAR↓
33 Rashard Mendenhall PIT
34 Chester Taylor MIN
35 K. Smith/T. Bell DET
36 Justin Fargas OAK
37 A.Green/C.Brown HOU
38 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG
38B LaMont Jordan NE↑
39 Leon Washington NYJ
40 Ladell Betts WAS
41 Deuce McAllister NO
42 Felix Jones DAL
43 Ricky Williams MIA
44 Jerious Norwood ATL